January of 2009 is officially the worst January ever with a decline of 8.5% . Whether you’re a believer of the January effect or the December Low Indicator it doesn’t really matter. As I wrote here it looks like January’s action is setting up for a potentially disastrous year. Both the December Low were broken and the January effect were negative.
For now I am still following the 7,500 thesis I wrote about a few weeks back. Next week is another big earnings week and a non-farm payrolls week. This number should be truly ugly. As of today the market is only expecting a decline of 500K jobs, but don’t be shocked if that number is closer to 600K by the end of the week.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.