A few of my bigger “macro” predictions over the last few years which I think are important because they are grounded, largely, in my understandings of the modern monetary system. As I like to say, better understandings lead to better results:
1) During the 2020 COVID stock collapse I said that the stock market was likely to rally because government deficits contributed to corporate profits.
2) In 2020 I said that the government spending was likely to cause relatively high inflation and that investors needed to own inflation protected assets.
which has since been debunked).
4) the USA wasn’t on the verge of a solvency crisis like Greece and that interest rates were likely to remain low.
5) the USA was Japan on fast forward and that our recovery was progressing faster than many presumed.
6) I described the balance sheet recession in near perfect detail and .
7) the bond bubble was a myth following the financial crisis.
8) interest rates would remain low even when QE2 ended.
9) housing prices had likely bottomed in 2012 (I also called the housing bubble back in another lifetime).
10) several times from 2010-2017 expressing my bullishness about the US stock market.
11) the high profile predictions about a municipal bond crisis were wrong.
12) I of the flawed monetary system. 3 years later that looks to have been dead on.
13) I said silver was a “bubble” in 2011 when it was near its peak in price.
13) I said commodities were in a bubble in 2011.
I’ve had my share of mistakes as well. But I’d say my track record has been pretty good about some pretty complex matters….