My Predictions

A few of my bigger “macro” predictions over the last few years which I think are important because they are grounded, largely, in my understandings of the modern monetary system.  As I like to say, better understandings lead to better results:

1) I said QE wouldn’t cause high inflation or hyperinflation.
2) I said the USA wasn’t on the verge of a solvency crisis like Greece and that bond vigilantes in the USA were a myth.
3) I said the USA was Japan on fast forward and that our recovery was progressing faster than many presumed.
4) I described the balance sheet recession in near perfect detail and even predicted its precise end.
5) I said the bond bubble was a myth.
6) I said interest rates would remain low even when QE2 ended.
7) I said housing prices had likely bottomed in 2012 (I also called the housing bubble back in another lifetime).
8) I’ve been on national TV several times from 2010-2017 expressing my bullishness about the US stock market.
9) I said the high profile predictions about a municipal bond crisis were wrong.
10) I said Europe would diverge because of the flawed monetary system. 3 years later that looks to have been dead on.

11)  I said silver was a “bubble” in 2011 when it was near its peak in price.

12)  I said commodities were in a bubble in 2011.

I’ve had my share of mistakes as well as I noted here. But I’d say my track record has been pretty good about some pretty complex matters….