A few of my bigger “macro” predictions over the last few years which I think are important because they are grounded, largely, in my understandings of the modern monetary system. As I like to say, better understandings lead to better results:
1) During the 2020 COVID stock collapse I said that the stock market was likely to rally because government deficits contributed to corporate profits.
2) In 2020 I said that the government spending was likely to cause relatively high inflation and that investors needed to own inflation protected assets.
3) I said the 2008 QE policy wouldn’t cause high inflation or hyperinflation mainly because people misunderstood the money multiplier (which has since been debunked).
4) I said the USA wasn’t on the verge of a solvency crisis like Greece and that interest rates were likely to remain low.
5) I said the USA was Japan on fast forward and that our recovery was progressing faster than many presumed.
6) I described the balance sheet recession in near perfect detail and even predicted its precise end.
7) I said the bond bubble was a myth following the financial crisis.
8) I said interest rates would remain low even when QE2 ended.
9) I said housing prices had likely bottomed in 2012 (I also called the housing bubble back in another lifetime).
10) I’ve been on national TV several times from 2010-2017 expressing my bullishness about the US stock market.
11) I said the high profile predictions about a municipal bond crisis were wrong.
12) I said Europe would diverge because of the flawed monetary system. 3 years later that looks to have been dead on.
13) I said silver was a “bubble” in 2011 when it was near its peak in price.
13) I said commodities were in a bubble in 2011.
I’ve had my share of mistakes as well as I noted here. But I’d say my track record has been pretty good about some pretty complex matters….