The recent post about David Levy’s recession forecast got me thinking about the next potential recession. We’re now in month 61 of the expansion. The average expansion in the post-war era has lasted 58 months. So we could be looking a little long in the tooth here. But it’s important to note, as I stated earlier this year, that expansions appear to be getting longer:
“it’s also interesting to note that the expansion phase of the business cycle appears to be getting longer. You’ll notice that 3 of those 6 long recoveries occurred since 1982. Are these anomalies or are they signs of a changing economic landscape? I think they’re probably signs of a changing economic landscape and that means that a lot of the data that exists before the post-war era probably doesn’t apply.”
Anyhow, I have a pretty strong opinion on what I think could cause the next recession, but I wanted to turn the floor over to the readers here and see what the forum thinks. What worries you as a potential catalyst for the next recession? Will it be Fed tightening? Exogenous forces? Debt issues? Market imbalances? Or do we even need a cause?
Use the comments to let me know what you think. I’m relying on you guys to give me a good idea of when it’s coming and what causes the next recession so I can allocate assets appropriately. Don’t let me down. My family is relying on your brilliance to eat in the future….