The recent post about David Levy’s recession forecast got me thinking about the next potential recession. We’re now in month 61 of the expansion. The average expansion in the post-war era has lasted 58 months. So we could be looking a little long in the tooth here. But it’s important to note, as I stated earlier this year, that expansions appear to be getting longer:
“it’s also interesting to note that the expansion phase of the business cycle appears to be getting longer. You’ll notice that 3 of those 6 long recoveries occurred since 1982. Are these anomalies or are they signs of a changing economic landscape? I think they’re probably signs of a changing economic landscape and that means that a lot of the data that exists before the post-war era probably doesn’t apply.”
Anyhow, I have a pretty strong opinion on what I think could cause the next recession, but I wanted to turn the floor over to the readers here and see what the forum thinks. What worries you as a potential catalyst for the next recession? Will it be Fed tightening? Exogenous forces? Debt issues? Market imbalances? Or do we even need a cause?
Use the comments to let me know what you think. I’m relying on you guys to give me a good idea of when it’s coming and what causes the next recession so I can allocate assets appropriately. Don’t let me down. My family is relying on your brilliance to eat in the future….
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.