I know, we all hate to hear good news these days. If I were a smart attention grabbing writer I’d spend a lot more time trying to scare the hell out of you guys. But I just don’t see the fear that so many love to spread. I see a weak economy, but one that continues to grow modestly. It’s by no means an ideal situation, but it’s also not looking like an end of the world scenario.
That said, one of the important indicators I track is the PMI reports that are released on a monthly basis. We’ll get the next reading next week, but I wanted to just provide a quick update on the situation in the USA since China’s reading came out looking ugly today.
The Richmond Fed came in very weak today at -11. But that was against the trend which has shown very strong readings in major economic hubs like Philly and NY which both came in with solid monthly figures. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in a little better this month and the industrial production numbers were okay.
The updated real-time PMI index is still trending towards growth and is showing solid improvement over recent readings (via Orcam Investment Research):
What’s it mean?
Well, it means not much has changed. We’re still in this weak growth period. Nothing to write home about, but nothing to jump out of windows over either…..
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.