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TREND IN RAIL DATA REMAINS POSITIVE, BUT FORECASTS WEAK RECOVERY

The most recent rail freight data continues to reflect the positive upward trend in economic growth, however, yeah over year growth remains mixed.   Total carloads were down 1.5% year over year and down 17.9% compared to 2007.  Intermodal traffic was up 1.8% year over year, but down 7.9% versus 2007.

The breadth continues to strengthen as 13 of the 19 commodity groups now show year over year growth.   Grains, chemicals and metals continue to lead the pack with double digit year of year expansion.  The data continues to reflect a weak recovery, but the trend is positive for now and equity markets have remained robust as the rail data troughed and turned higher.

Source: AAR

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