James Bianco has a good set of charts over at Ritholtz’s site showing the decline in GDP forecasts over the last few quarters. It shows how optimistic and how wrong economists have generally been around growth. He says:
“As the charts below show, GDP forecasts have been falling for many months and the median estimates are now at their lowest levels ever. Simply put, analysts were too optimistic about economic growth early on and as the release dates nears, reality is setting in.”
My own expansion/contraction model is tracking at 2.4% in Q3. That’s slightly higher than the current Q3 median estimate, but still very weak. The good news is forecasts aren’t slipping into recession territory. The bad news is we’re barely growing at all.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.