Sadly, at the end of the day the current system still involves mainly economists (who have no understanding of risk management) pulling levers and making forecasts about the future that ultimately impact all of our lives. Here are some highlights from yesterday’s release of the 2006 FOMC transcripts (via Calculated Risk):
Bies, cont. ” However… let me just say that the bottom line is that overall mortgage credit quality is still very, very strong. ”
Yellen, Oct. ’06: “Of course, housing is a relatively small sector of the economy, and its decline should be self-correcting.”
Mishkin, Sept. ’06: “The excesses in the housing sector seem to be unwinding in an acceptable way… I’m actually quite positive.”
Geithner, Sept. ’06: “We just don’t see troubling signs yet of collateral damage, and we are not expecting much.”
Lacker, Sept. ’06: “I’m still fairly skeptical of large indirect spillover effects on employment or consumption.”
Minehan, Sept. 06: “Buyers should recognize housing [is] more affordable & resume purchases, perhaps w/out further major price declines.”
Bies, June ’06: “So I really believe that the drop in housing is actually on net going to make liquidity available for other sectors...”
Fed staff report, June ’06: “We have not seen—and don’t expect—a broad deterioration in mortgage credit quality.”
Bernanke, March 2006: “Again, I think we are unlikely to see growth being derailed by the housing market.”
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.