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SF FED: RECESSION ODDS IN 2012 – FLIP A COIN

The odds of recession remain unusually high according to a recent report from the San Francisco Fed.  Their recession risk indicator now puts the odds of recession at over 50%:

“The combination of these two recession coins, shown in the combined risks line of Figure 2, is quite disconcerting. It indicates that the odds are greater than 50% that we will experience a recession sometime early in 2012. Because the international odds of recession are more imprecisely estimated, one must be careful with a strict interpretation of this result. But the message is clear. Prudence suggests that the fragile state of the U.S. economy would not easily withstand turbulence coming across the Atlantic. A European sovereign debt default may well sink the United States back into recession. However, if we navigate the storm through the second half of 2012, it appears that danger will recede rapidly in 2013.”

Source: SF Fed

 

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