For a few weeks since late November, equity markets ignored the onslaught of much-worse-than-expected macro news (and all the news was really worse than awful) and had a nice 25% bear market sucker’s rally. But the drumbeat of worse-than-expected macro new–and earnings news, and financial news–has finally taken a toll on the delusional market belief that the worst was over for financial markets and for equity markets and that the U.S. and global economy would recover in the second half of 2009. So equity prices have already reversed more than half of their most recent bear market rally as the lousy macro news has finally shocked the wishful thinkers.
If he thinks the economy begins to recover in 2010, as I do, he better be prepared for a massive rally at some point in the second half of 2009….
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.