Still no recession, but yesterday’s retail sales disappointment led to broad downgrades for Q2 GDP. The WSJ’s Real Time Economics provided some details:
J.P. Morgan Chase – now expects U.S. gross domestic product to grow at a 2.0% annual growth rate, down from its previous 2.5% projection.
BofA Merrill Lynch – Today’s report slices 0.5 percentage point from second quarter GDP growth, leaving us tracking 1.9%.”
Royal Bank of Scotland – lowered its forecast for second-quarter GDP to 1.9% growth from 2.2%
Barclays Capital – “The retail ex-autos component, relevant for GDP tracking, rose 0.1%, in line with our forecast, although a one-tenth downward revision to March (to 0.0%) was sufficient to push our 2Q GDP tracking estimate down by one-tenth, to 1.8%.”
Credit Suisse also highlighted a downward revision to April’s numbers, and moved its tracking estimate for 2Q GDP to 2.2% from 2.5%.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.