In our continuing effort to decipher the ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index we decided to explore what, in our opinion, looks more like a coincident indicator than a leading indicator. This has become vitally important in recent months as this index has become the “go to” index for many investors making their investment decisions and pleading their bearish case.
We looked at the S&P 500 vs the ECRI Weekly Leading Index going back to 1968 and found an uncanny correlation. Attached below is an unlabeled chart of both. Can you tell which is which? Feel free to make your guess in the comment section:
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.