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The non-farm payrolls report is the grand daddy of economic reports.  And no report has been worse in the last 6 months.  Of the prior 7 reports the market has sold off the Thursday prior on 5 occasions:

Sept 4th -2.9%

Oct 2nd -4%

Nov 6th -4.9%

Dec 4th -2.8%

Jan 8th +0.3%

Feb 5th +1.5%

Mar 5th -4.2%


Avg Return -2.42%

As you can see, the market has traded very cautiously heading into the NFP report throughout this downturn.  With the futures ramping up 100 (as I write) and M2M decisions expected tomorrow at 9AM and 10AM we could see a bout of “selling the news” compounded by pre-NFP fear.  The figures today out of ADP were particularly bad so that could fuel fears of owning stocks heading into Friday’s report.  The wildcard tomorrow is a G20 agreement.  A major agreement could very well spark some optimism.  The odds point to a decline tomorrow, however, we’ll have to play the G20 news by ear….