Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus numbers shown reflect a June 28 update. Last report, nonfarm payroll employment in May surged 431,000, following a 290,000 boost in April, and a 208,000 gain in March. The May boost was the largest since a 472,000 spike in March 2000. But according to the BLS, Census hiring added 411,000 temporary jobs to the payroll gain. Private nonfarm employment increased only 41,000, following a 218,000 boost in April. Average hourly earnings picked up with a 0.3 percent rise in May, following a 0.1 percent advance the month before. The average workweek for all workers edged up to 34.2 hours from 34.1 hours in April. The unemployment rate slipped to 9.7 percent from 9.9 percent in April. Some are already seeing Census layoffs turning the June payroll number negative. Once again, market focus will be on private payrolls to discount the Census effect. A disappointing ADP report on private payrolls released this Wednesday has analysts bumping their forecasts down.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.