From Jeff Saut’s latest weekly letter. He says no recession in 2012, but continued market volatility. He lists a slew of reasons why he doesn’t foresee recession (via Raymond James):
“Unfortunately, we expect the volatility to continue in 2012.
Speaking to 2012, I remain steadfast in the belief there will be no recession, nor will Euroquake pull us into one. I also embrace the theme that the nation is moving in the direction of energy self-sufficiency and that an American manufacturing renaissance is taking place. Moreover, there appears to be the hint of a housing recovery, as well as a technology revolution. Combine these beliefs with the demographics of a baby boom echo, which should foster a new cadre of investors, and I think the SPX will have a mid- to high-single-digit return in 2012. If you layer in a 3-4% dividend yield on top of said return, the allure of equities becomes pretty compelling.”
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.