Fed Truthers spent much of the last 10 years screaming about how QE would create hyperinflation. When that turned out to be wrong they pivoted and claimed the “inflation” was [ … ]

In my recent research note on COVID I noted two potential scenarios: Short and painful. Basically, 6 months of lockdown with a modestly fast recovery (~15 months). Short-ish and painful. [ … ]

I joined Taylor Schulte from Define Financial to discuss the potential impact of COVID-19. We covered: The recent research paper I published. Two potential scenarios for COVID-19. Why this recession [ … ]

Full blown panic has set in. And no one knows when it will end. The uncertainty is like a daily replay of the worst moments of the financial crisis. Except [ … ]

We’re going to see an economic contraction due to COVID-19. No one knows how deep it will be, but there are going to be sectors of the economy that experience [ … ]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Is it different this time?  I wrote in my book that it’s always different this time. No two economic [ … ]

When I talk to new clients I always tell them “a crisis is the worst time to learn your risk tolerance”. Unfortunately, far too many people do exactly that. They [ … ]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Is there another stock market bubble?  Over the course of the last 6 or 7 years I have consistently [ … ]