Home prices continued to accelerate at a double digit pace in April according to CoreLogic. The latest reading came in at 10.5% year over year which is the fifteenth consecutive double digit reading.
Just passing along this data point from the Cross Asset Research team. They cite the CitiGroup Economic Surprise Index for several regions to reinforce their case for a global macro slowdown:
Treasury yields just refuse to move higher….
Important chart here from Michael McDonough at Bloomberg. It shows the spread between Italian sovereign bond yields and corporate bond yields. As you can see, as the government yield has fallen quite dramatically the corporate yield hasn’t followed.
Don’t let anyone convince you that a bond bear market is anything remotely similar to a stock bear market….
While we’re probably closer to the next recession than we are to the beginning of the recovery, it’s also important to remember that the business cycle seems to be getting longer and longer.
The Investment Company Institute (ICI) began tracking flows into equity funds in 2007 which I have overlaid with the investor psychology cycle. In this manner, you can witness investor behavior in “real time.”
This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, depicts the MSCI equity index for the developed countries (orange line) and the emerging markets (white line).
This Great Graphic was tweeted by the Financial Times’ Cardiff Garcia, which he got from Goldman Sachs. It tries to assess the outlook for wage growth based on different measures of unemployment, including short-term unemployment rate.