This Great Graphic was tweeted by the Financial Times’ Cardiff Garcia, which he got from Goldman Sachs. It tries to assess the outlook for wage growth based on different measures of unemployment, including short-term unemployment rate.
Last week I posted a good chart from Morgan Stanley showing where some countries were in the business cycle. Of course, the business cycle is not the market cycle so this doesn’t really connect the dots to anything. Luckily, David Rosenberg has some data for us (at least as it applies to the USA):
Don’t worry about rising rates if you’re also worried about low growth….
Here’s a nice bit of global macro perspective on the state of different economies in the business cycle. Clearly, this is an approximation, but I have a feeling they’re pretty close to right here:
If you’re worried about high inflation then you must definitely think that the markets have things all wrong.
Commodities are very much the center of attention in the financial markets. The first Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, is the CRB index. Through last Friday (March 7) it had rallied 13.5% since January 9.
Here’s a contrarian view for you:
Nothing too exciting here, but I thought this chart from MarketWatch was pretty a pretty interesting perspective of some historical bull/bear markets. It shows how some historical precedents might play out:
One of the most important things you learn when you start to think of the world in a macro way is that you start looking at both sides of the ledger before making sweeping conclusions. This helps you to avoid falling victim to a fallacy of composition.