Here’s a contrarian view for you:
Nothing too exciting here, but I thought this chart from MarketWatch was pretty a pretty interesting perspective of some historical bull/bear markets. It shows how some historical precedents might play out:
One of the most important things you learn when you start to think of the world in a macro way is that you start looking at both sides of the ledger before making sweeping conclusions. This helps you to avoid falling victim to a fallacy of composition.
The latest reading on rail traffic is showing some fairly substantial softening. The weekly reading in intermodal traffic came in at -5.7% which brings the 12 week moving average to just 1.7%. That’s the weakest reading since the middle of last year. On the whole, this is much more consistent with the muddle through economic environment we’ve been seeing.
Here’s some macro perspective for you. Yesterday, Barclay’s strategists published some good insights putting the recent underperformance of emerging markets in perspective. Value investors and macro investors alike might find some useful info here….
This is not 1929. So let’s stop with that, okay?
Just passing along a good chart from Lance Roberts which puts the various market corrections from the last 5 years in the right perspective:
Buffett’s index fund bet against a group of hedge funds is looking pretty smart. Especially when one considers the terms of the agreement, which make the hedge funds look even sillier….
Every time the market takes a tumble these days everyone seems to blame the “taper” or QE. I guess there’s always a need to apply a cause to every market gyration. But I wanted to bring some perspective back to this conversation …