Here is some good global macro news to start the year as global PMIs are reported. The BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) posted stronger than expected data with Brazil’s PMI coming in at 49.1, Russia at 52.6, India at 54.2 and China at 48.7. Overall, the story from the reports was one of modest growth, but certainly nothing that resembles the broad fear of global slow-down that has persisted in recent months. The following comments are via Markit:
“The main message from the latest HSBC Manufacturing PMI index is that the deterioration in Brazil’s manufacturing sector business conditions continued to ease in December. ”
“the current, still benign rate of economic activity expansion may be prone to an abrupt fall if current business expectations come true. By and large, the downside risks for economic growth in Russia are mounting.”
“Activity in the manufacturing sector rebounded in December led by higher demand from both domestic and foreign clients, suggesting that the momentum in the sector is not quite as weak as official and more dated IP data would suggest.”
“While the pace of slowdown is stabilizing somewhat, weakening external demand is starting to bite. This, plus the ongoing property market corrections, adds to calls for more aggressive action on both fiscal and monetary fronts to stabilize growth and jobs, especially with prices easing rapidly. Hard landings should be avoided so long as easing measures filter through in the coming months.”
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.