Rail traffic trends continue to point to a positive overall economic outlook. Intermodal traffic has been choppy in recent weeks due to seasonal discrepancies, but the 12 week moving average [ … ]
Some Thoughts on Economic and Market Forecasting
My friend and fellow San Diegan Robert Seawright had a thoughtful piece on forecasting yesterday. He discussed the folly of forecasting and why it can be silly to rely on [ … ]
What is a “Helicopter Drop”?
There’s been a lot of ink spilled in recent days about the efficacy of “helicopter drops”. Paul Krugman says they won’t work. David Beckworth makes a similar point. [ … ]
3 Very Bearish Charts
I know it’s not fashionable to be bearish about anything these days, but I guess I just can’t kill the old risk manager in me. Given this predisposition, I wanted [ … ]
Paul Krugman’s Interesting Move Closer to Post-Keynesian Economics
If you’d been paying close attention over the years you’d have noticed something interesting about many of Paul Krugman’s economic positions – they’re becoming increasingly compatible with Post-Keynesian Economic positions. [ … ]
More on “Japan on Fast Forward”
One thing I highlighted in my talk yesterday at the University of South Carolina was this idea that the US economy more closely resembles Japan in the 90’s more than [ … ]
The Balance Sheet Recession is Over
I am glad (and sad) to say that the Balance Sheet Recession in the USA appears to be over. Yesterday’s Z.1 report from the Fed confirmed that households have indeed [ … ]
Hard Times Mean Easy Money is Here to Stay
Here are the slides from the presentation I gave at the University of South Carolina yesterday at their 33rd annual economic outlook conference. It was a really great event and [ … ]
Unemployment in Europe – Still a Disaster
Last week’s employment report and 7% unemployment rate in the USA had many people (including markets) cheering the news. But here’s something you might not know – while there’s been [ … ]