Have you heard the news? George Soros is betting huge on a stock market decline (see here, here and here). And that should matter to you because George Soros is very smart, right? Well, it depends on the details of course and these are the kinds of land mines you have you to navigate through when reading financial “news”. Because there are all sorts of problems here. Let’s look at a few of them briefly:
- This “bearish position” was reported in a 13-F filing which is outdated the second it gets to you.
- George Soros actually retired years ago. His fund is now a family office fund run by Scott Bessent.
- The actual put position reported in the filing is miniscule relative to the broader long position and likely represents a relatively meager out of the money position in what would have been increasingly less expensive options positions.
Basically, there’s nothing informative in the idea that “George Soros” is building a bearish position in this fund. So pay attention to this stuff at your own peril. If you’re taking any of this stuff seriously there’s a very good chance you’re buying fear from someone in exchange for your dollars.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.