Here’s an interesting graphic from the Wall Street Journal. It shows the Fed’s economic forecasts compared to the actual economic outcome. As you can see the Fed overestimated their forecast in both the 6 and 12 month timeframes. And we’re not talking about small misses in their forecast. Just eyeballing this chart, it’s clear that they’ve missed the forecast by roughly 1.5% over much of the last 10 year period….
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.