Oil is up 49% from its December bottom. Although black gold is down 65% since its peak last year many investors view oil’s rise as a sign of global growth gaining traction. Many investors, myself included, are still skeptical of the strength in global markets, but oil is not the way to bet against this possibility. Why you ask? Because of North Korea. While investors were celebrating the entirely uneventful G20 meeting North Korea was preparing for a bright sunny day to fire a missile into space. Not just any missile, but a long range ballistic missile. Specifically designed to reach the Hawaiian Islands with the hopes of one day reaching the west coast of the U.S. This is the kind of global unrest that will send investors into the safety of commodities such as oil. That is assuming of course, that anything comes of this little sideshow Kim Jong-Il is putting on. While it may be tempting to short oil after its spectacular move off the December bottom I believe this sole unknown is reason enough to avoid a short position.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.