For the week of July 5th:
The holiday shortened week will be light on earnings and economic data. Aside from the ISM report on Tuesday and jobless claims on Thursday there is not a whole lot of market moving data on the calendar. It could be a quiet week. Maybe a break from more negative news is a good thing….Let see what’s on tap (in conjunction with Econoday):
Monday – Holiday (4th of July observed).
ISM Non-Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET
The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey in May continued well into positive territory, coming in at a very solid 55.4 for the third month in a row and indicating a moderate rate of growth. Employment finally crossed above the breakeven point of 50 for the first time this recovery, but just barely at 50.4 for a 9 tenths gain. The 50.4 indicates, based on this report’s methodology, a net gain in hiring. We could see another gain in the composite in June as the May new orders index posted at a healthy 57.1. This is down from 58.2 in April and the recent high of 62.3 in March but is still quite positive, indicating net growth. More recently, the Chicago PMI remained strong in June but showed signs of deceleration, coming in at 59.1, compared to 59.7 in May. The Chicago PMI is somewhat related to the ISM non-manufacturing index since it covers both non-manufacturing and manufacturing.
ISM non-manufacturing composite index Consensus Forecast for June 10: 55.
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET
Redbook 8:55 AM ET
Chain Store Sales
BOE Announcement 7:00 AM ET
ECB Announcement 7:45 AM ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 in the June 26 week to 472,000, lifting the four-week average by 3,250 to 466,500 for the highest level since March. Layoffs of temporary Census workers may be a factor as some may qualify for unemployment benefits, but the Labor Department did not offer insight on this in its report. Continuing claims have been edging lower in what is probably a good sign though it may reflect to a degree discouraged workers leaving the workforce or simply running out of benefits.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 7/3/10: 465,000
Consumer Credit 3:00 PM ET
Consumer credit outstanding edged up $1.0 billion in April—the first increase in three months. However, the original estimate for March of a $2.0 billion rise was revised downward by $7.4 billion and now shows a $5.4 billion contraction. For the latest month, non-revolving credit, reflecting strong car sales, jumped $9.4 billion in April but was offset by a nearly as large of a fall in revolving credit.
Consumer credit Consensus Forecast for May 10: -$2.0 billion
Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
Wholesale Trade 10:00 AM ET
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.