The economic calendar is relatively light this week so earnings will be the primary focus. With the market’s big run into earnings it’s now well known that earnings are going to be very good yet again so the onus might be on outside catalysts to continue the bull market. It will be interesting to see if fears over financial regulation and the Goldman Sachs lawsuit continue to roil the markets or prove to be a short lived event.
In conjunction with Econoday:
Monday – CitiGroup (C) post earnings before the bell and IBM (IBM) posts earnings after the bell.
Leading Indicators 10:00 AM ET
The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators in February inched up 0.1 percent, following a 0.3 percent gain the month before. These two numbers were less robust than the sharp increases seen the prior seven months. As has been the case for some time, the yield spread between the overnight funds rate and the 10-year yield was by far the report’s most positive element, followed by money supply.
Leading indicators Consensus Forecast for March 10: +1.1 percent
Tuesday – Coke (KO) reports before the bell. Apple (AAPL) reports after the bell.
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET
Redbook 8:55 AM ET
Bank of Canada Announcement 9:00 AM ET
Wednesday – Boeing (BA) and McDonalds (MCD) report before the bell. Qualcomm reports after the bell.
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
Thursday – Pepsi (PEP) and Raytheon (RTN) report before the bell. Amazon (AMZN), American Express (AXP) and Capital One (COF) report after the bell.
Producer Price Index 8:30 AM ET
The producer price index for February dropped 0.6 percent after spiking 1.4 percent in January. At the core level, the PPI inflation rate eased to a 0.1 percent rise from a 0.3 percent gain in January. The drop in the headline PPI was led by a 2.9 percent decrease in energy costs after 5.1 percent surge in January. Looking ahead, energy may dip again as spot prices for crude oil rose less in March than seasonally typical for the month—meaning, it declined about 3.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, regional shortages of some fruits and vegetables may put upward pressure on the food component of the PPI. Analysts may be relying too heavily on unadjusted oil prices given their relatively strong forecast for the headline PPI.
PPI Consensus Forecast for March 10: +0.4 percent
PPI ex food & energy Consensus Forecast for March 10: +0.1 percent
Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 10 jumped 24,000 to 484,000 for a second increase in a row. The Labor Department attributed the rise in claims not to economic factors but to continuing administrative snags as offices catch up with claims during the shortened Easter week and, in California, for the Cesar Chavez holiday.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 4/17/10: 460,000
Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET
Existing home sales in February fell 0.6 percent to a sluggish pace of a 5.02 million units annualized. In turn, months’ supply jumped to 8.6 months from 7.8 in January and 7.2 in December. Despite the supply overhang, the median sales price came in at $165,100, up 0.1 percent from February on a month-ago basis and down 1.8 percent on a year-ago basis. Existing sales should get some lift both in March and April from the pending expiration of homebuyer tax credits at the end of April.
Existing home sales Consensus Forecast for March 10: 5.250 million-unit rate
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
Friday – Honeywell (HON) and Slumberger (SLB) report before the bell.
Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET
Durable goods orders in February gained a revised 0.9 percent, following a revised 3.8 percent surge in January. New orders have been up three months in a row. Excluding the transportation, new durables orders rebounded 1.4 percent, following a 0.8 percent decline in January. Looking ahead, recent manufacturing surveys were mixed on new orders. The ISM durables index spiked to 62.3 for March from 55.0 the prior month (breakeven of 50) and the Empire State survey’s new orders index jumped to 25.43 from 8.78 in February. In contrast, the Philly Fed new orders index eased to a less positive 9.3 from 22.7 in February. The two regional surveys have a breakeven point at zero.
New orders for durable goods Consensus Forecast for March 10: +0.4 percent
New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET
New home sales in February fell 2.2 percent to a 308,000 annual rate. This was a record low sales pace with this series which goes back to January 1963. Supply swelled to 9.2 months. Sales should rebound in March as this is the month in which most homes would have to be purchased and still close by the end of April in order to get homebuyer tax credits before that program expires at month end. New home sales are based on contract signing, not closing. Also, mortgage applications for home purchases firmed in March.
New home sales Consensus Forecast for March 10: 330 thousand-unit annual rate
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.