For the week of April 11th (in conjunction with Econoday):
The calendar is loaded with market moving news this week. In addition to the beginning of earnings season the economic calendar is also full.
Monday –Alcoa kicks off the earnings season after the bell. There is no market moving economic news so Melt-up Monday should proceed as normal.
Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report for February showed a deficit of $220.9—much as expected due to stimulus outlays on tax credits and small-business subsidies. Tarp outlays were also heavy, at $2.3 billion. A large Fed payment boosted receipts which was the report’s only highlight. Looking ahead, the month of March typically shows a sizeable deficit for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average deficit for the month of March has been $108.0 billion and $144.3 billion over the past 5 years. The March 2009 deficit came in at $192.3 billion.
Treasury Statement Consensus Forecast for March 10: -$62.0 billion
Tuesday –Intel (INTC) and CSX both report after the bell. Economic reports are light.
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET
International Trade 8:30 AM ET
The U.S. international trade gap unexpectedly shrank in January despite higher oil prices, falling to $37.3 billion from a revised $39.9 billion in December. Exports slipped 0.3 percent but imports fell a sharper 1.7 percent. The improvement in the trade deficit was about evenly split between the petroleum and nonpetroleum balances. The petroleum deficit came in at $22.7 billion, down from $23.6 billion in December as the number of barrels imported fell significantly. The nonpetroleum gap narrowed to $25.4 billion from $26.9 billion in December. Looking ahead, it may seem like ancient history but oil prices actually dipped in February on a seasonally adjusted basis and this could keep imports soft. On the other hand, consumer spending and business investment in equipment have picked up and we could see a boost in imports in these categories. The direction of the trade deficit for now, however, may not be as important to the equity and bond markets as to whether both foreign and domestic demand are picking up—i.e., both exports and imports gaining.
International trade balance Consensus Forecast for February 10: -$39.0 billion
Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ET
Redbook 8:55 AM ET
Jeffrey Lacker Speaks 7:15 PM ET
Wednesday –JP Morgan kicks off bank earnings before the bell.
Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET
The consumer price index for February showed little or no inflation for the month as the headline number eased to no change from up 0.2 percent the month before. Core CPI inflation rebounded a modest 0.1 percent, following a 0.1 percent dip in January. Keeping the overall number soft were a 0.5 percent dip in energy (largely gasoline) and a slowing in food inflation to up 0.1 percent. Keeping the core rate subdued were flat shelter costs and declines in apparel and recreation. Looking ahead, there is mixed information for the pending headline number. Crude oil was up significantly in March but actually was down moderately on a seasonally adjusted basis. On the food front, we could see inflation firming from the impact of recent severe winter weather in Florida growing regions. At the core level, shelter should remain weak but some other categories may not be under as severe pressure to discount prices since retail sales have been relative good.
CPI Consensus Forecast for March 10: +0.1 percent
CPI ex food & energy Consensus Forecast for March 10: +0.1 percent
Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET
Retail sales in February rose 0.3 percent after rebounding 0.1 percent in January. But the gain was far better after discounting a drop in auto sales. Excluding autos, sales in February jumped a sharp 0.8 percent, following a 0.5 percent boost the month before. Excluding both autos and gasoline, February sales spiked 0.9 percent, following a 0.5 percent rise in January. The February jump in overall sales was broad based. Looking ahead, several factors point to a strong number for March. First, unit new motor vehicle sales surged 13.5 percent for the month. February likely was held back by severe winter storms and we could see a bounce from improved weather letting more consumers make it to the malls. Also, Easter was a little early this year and bumped most of Easter sales into March. Seasonal adjustment for a roving holiday is tricky and we could get a boost from an early Easter. Reports on chain store sales for March also were good. The only notable negative is a dip in oil prices in March—which may or may not have made their way to the pump.
Retail sales Consensus Forecast for March 10: +1.2 percent
Retail sales excluding motor vehicles Consensus Forecast for March 10: +0.5 percent
Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET
Business inventories were unchanged in January after slipping 0.3 percent in December. Businesses may be a little more optimistic about a pending rise in demand as they appear to be trying to hold onto or boost stocks. For February, manufacturers’ inventories slipped barely 0.1 percent while wholesale inventories were up 0.6 percent—suggesting that with a little help from the retail component that overall inventories will be up notably.
Business inventories Consensus Forecast for February 10: +0.5 percent
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
Jeffrey Lacker Speaks 11:00 AM ET
Kevin Warsh Speaks 12:15 PM ET
Richard Fisher Speaks 1:00 PM ET
Beige Book 2:00 PM ET
The Beige Book being prepared for the April 27-28 meeting will be released. Traders will be looking for signs of strengthening recovery—notably for consumer spending and hiring.
Thursday –Google reports after the bell.
Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM ET
The Empire State manufacturing index slowed by more than 2 points to 22.86 in March, but the reading was still far over zero, indicating significant month-to-month expansion. There also is significant forward momentum as the new orders index spiked to 25.43 in March from 8.78 in February. Based on new orders, we should see a healthy headline number for April.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey Consensus Forecast for April 10: 25.0
Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
Initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped 18,000 for the week ending April 3 to move back up to 460,000. However, the Labor Department noted special calendar factors for the jump not only citing Easter as a distortion but also the Cesar Chavez holiday in California. Analysts are expecting a dip this week as a technical offset to last week’s upward bump.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 4/10/10: 440,000
Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET
Industrial production has been volatile in recent months as indicated by a small 0.1 percent rise in February after a 0.9 percent jump the month before. The manufacturing component in the latest month, however, fell back 0.2 percent, following a 0.9 percent spike in January. Weakness was led by motor vehicles—other components were mixed. For the latest month, utilities output jumped 0.5 percent while mining output increased 2.0 percent. Capacity utilization remains low as it edged up to 72.7 percent in February from 72.5 percent the month before. Looking ahead, all notable early indicators are pointing toward notable improvement in production for March. From the employment report for March, production worker hours surged 1.5 percent. Also, headline indexes for key manufacturing survey rose sizably—including those of the ISM, Philly Fed, and Empire State.
Industrial production Consensus Forecast for March 10: +0.8 percent
Capacity utilization Consensus Forecast for March 10: 73.4 percent
Philadelphia Fed Survey 10:00 AM ET
The general business conditions component of the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey index for March strengthened further to a reading of 18.9 from February’s 17.6. New orders came in at 9.3 to indicate month-to-month growth but moderated from a strong 22.7 reading for February. Based on new orders, April’s headline number may ease but likely will still be notably positive.
Philadelphia Fed survey Consensus Forecast for April 10: 20.0
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
Jeffrey Lacker Speaks 10:30 AM ET
James Bullard Speaks 12:15 PM ET
Housing Market Index 1:00 PM ET
Dennis Lockhart Speaks 1:40 PM ET
Jeffrey Lacker Speaks 3:15 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
Money Supply 4:30 PM ET
Janet Yellen Speaks 8:30 PM ET
Friday – Bank of America (BAC) and GE report before the bell.
Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET
Housing starts in February were bumped down by snow storms as groundbreaking for new homes fell 5.9 percent, following a 6.6 percent rebound the month before. February’s annualized pace of 0.575 million was up 0.2 percent on a year-ago basis. Fundamentals for starts are still weak with supply of new and existing homes on the market still high and foreclosures still a major problem. However, we may still see a modest weather-related rebound in starts for March, coming off atypically severe weather the month before.
Housing starts Consensus Forecast for March 10: 0.605 million-unit rate
Kevin Warsh Speaks 9:00 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET
The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index moved upward the second half of March, coming in at 73.6 for the final reading, compared to the mid-month reading of 72.5. The improvement was primarily due to a rise for the current conditions index to 82.5 from mid-month’s 80.8. The expectations index rose only seven tenths from mid-month to 67.9. Due to the dip in the headline number at mid-month, the final overall March reading was unchanged from February. Looking ahead, stabilization in unemployment and the improved likelihood of continued gains in employment may boost confidence in April.
Consumer sentiment Consensus Forecast for preliminary April 10: 75.0