The first week of the stock market’s most notorious month will start with a bang and end with a whimper. Earnings season officially starts on Wednesday afternoon when Alcoa reports, but don’t be fooled – the true start to earnings season is not for another 10 days or so. The noise from the MSM will be deafening and the market reaction should be a snooze fest. The actual earnings calendar is relatively light this week with just 6 S&P 500 companies reporting. None of them should be major market movers. The economic calendar is also relatively light with ISM Services at the beginning of the week and a light calendar the rest of the week.
With the market 5% off its highs we’re at a critical juncture in the rally. Technically, stocks are short-term oversold, but the fundamentals now appear to be fully in question as earnings thus far have been disappointing and housing begins to show further cracks in the foundation. I remain fully in the anti-beta trade, but will update my outlook early this week as I wrap my brain around the upcoming earnings season which is certain to be the next major market catalyst.
ISM Non-Mfg Index – 10:00 AM ET
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales – 7:45 AM ET
Redbook – 8:55 AM ET
Consumer Credit – 3:00 PM ET
Chain Store Sales
Jobless Claims – 8:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30 AM ET
International Trade – 8:30 AM ET
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.