Another week in the books. Let’s take a look at what’s ahead. The earnings calendar is very light. None of the reports should be market moving. That means economic reports will be in focus and the docket is loaded:
Monday – A slow day. Chicago PMI is on the docket, but shouldn’t be a huge market mover. Expect investors to position themselves for data later in the week.
Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET
Tuesday – A potentially bullish day. Motor vehicle sales are likely to be strong after the cash for clunkers boost. ICSC and Redbook will be weak, but no one pays attention to the consumer spending figures that actually matter. ISM should also come in robust as auto production likely boosts the index. Pending home sales should continue to experience seasonal strength. All in all, a potential home run for the bulls.
Motor Vehicle Sales
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET
Redbook 8:55 AM ET
ISM Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending 10:00 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET
Wednesday –The FOMC minutes will be the news of the day. Expect a much rosier outlook from the meeting.
ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET
Productivity and Costs 8:30 AM ET
Factory Orders 10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET
Thursday –Retail sales should be very weak once again, but the ISM estimates look poised for a “better than expected” number. The market is looking for 570K claims for the week. Don’t be shocked to see that come in better than expected as well.
Chain Store Sales
Monster Employment Index
ECB Announcement 7:45 AM ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
Friday –The biggest news of the month. Analysts are expecting a large decline in claims at -225K. This looks like a very optimistic figure to us.
Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET
All in all, the news has a bullish tilt this week, but that could all change on Friday morning when the employment report comes out. I continue to think hedging strategies and low beta strategies will outperform after the spectacular run we’ve seen.