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The slate is relatively light compared to previous weeks.   The big news of the week will be the Fed meeting.  The Fed is not expected to make any changes at the meeting so the it is likely less eventful than many will pump it up to be (hello CNBC!). We also auction off a whopping $75B in treasuries next week.  The never ending growing debt just keeps growing.  Retailers are heavy on the earnings calendar and we get retail sales on Thursday.

  • Tuesday: Q2 productivity
  • Wednesday: June wholesale inventories, June trade balance, Fed statement (about 2:10 p.m.), July treasury budget, weekly crude inventories
  • Thursday: July retail sales, June business inventories, July import and export prices, weekly initial jobless claims
  • Friday: July Consumer Price Index (CPI), July industrial production and capacity utilization, preliminary August University of Michigan consumer confidence

I am generally uncomfortable heading into slow news weeks such as this one.  The bulls are firmly in control.  This market certainly has the feel of total and complete complacency.  Remember, the market is likely to fool most of the people most of the time.  I think the risks are highly elevated here.

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