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WHAT THE MACRO LANDSCAPE USUALLY LOOKS LIKE AFTER A 60% RALLY

Cullen Roche -

Just how overbought is the current rally?  Data from David Rosenberg would imply that we are currently living through a statistical outlier:

•  GDP has expanded by 5.3%, on average (now just bottoming out)
•  Corporate profits are growing at 34%, on average (ditto)
•  Employment has rebounded by 2.1 mln (still declining)
•  Bank lending rose an average of 16.5% (ditto)
•  ISM is at 58.9, on average (now 52.9)
•  Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) is at 91.8, on average (now 54.1)

Source: Gluskin Sheff

About Post Author

Cullen Roche

Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds. Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances. He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.

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