Truck tonnage declined in February, but is continuing to show signs of recovery, much like the rails data.
“The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 0.5 percent in February, following a revised 1.9 percent increase in January. The latest drop put the SA index at 108.5 (2000=100), down from 109.1 in January. The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 97.6 in February, down 0.8 percent from the previous month.
Compared with February 2009, SA tonnage increased 2.6 percent, which was the third consecutive year-over-year gain. For the first two months of 2010, SA tonnage was up 3.5 percent compared with the same period last year. For all of 2009, the tonnage index contracted 8.7 percent, which was the largest annual decrease since 1982.
ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that the February tonnage reading is difficult to interpret because of the severe winter storms that impacted truck freight movements during the month, particularly on the East Coast. However, he remains optimistic about the recovery for the industry. “I continue to hear from motor carriers that both the demand and supply situations are steadily improving.. Certainly it will take a while to make up the ground lost during the recession, but the industry is on the path to recovery.” Costello said he expects to see some volatility on a month-to-month basis throughout this year, but the trend line should be for moderate growth.”
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.