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Three Things I Think I Think – 140 Character Edition

Macro thoughts, 140 characters style:

Does this strike anyone else as being odd? The dominant discussion in the last 12 months is whether the Fed should raise rates or not. And according to most macro indicators the economy is fragile at best and deteriorating at worst. JP Morgan says the risk of recession is rising! And the Fed wants to raise rates? As I’ve noted repeatedly, they need to tread carefully here or the recession they’re trying to thwart will become the recession they cause.



The sad state of the economy is getting increasingly reflected in the financial markets as pension funds and other investors based many of their cash flow models on past returns. As a result many investors expect unreasonably high rates of future returns. But instead of tempering expectations it looks like many investors are simply diversifying into riskier portfolios. Will they get the returns they need from these alternative asset classes? I suspect not….


The best Muhammad Ali obituary was, unsurprisingly, by Muhammad Ali: