More mixed economic data this morning. GDP came in better than expected and points to a strong likelihood of a positive print next quarter. Investors were expecting Q2 GDP to be revised down to -1.5%, but the number came in at -1%. Econoday reports:
Exports and personal consumption were revised up while inventories and nonresidential investment were revised down. Net, final sales are now positive at an annualized 0.4 percent in the second quarter, compared to the initial estimate of a 0.2 percent dip. This follows three consecutive declines, including a 4.1 percent decline in the first quarter. The improved estimate for final sales and lower inventories raises the odds of a moderate gain in GDP for the third quarter-probably the best news out of the report.
More alarming is the jobless claims data. Despite being 2 years into a recession we are still seeing little to no signs of a recovery in the jobs market. Total claims came in at 570K this morning which was essentially in-line with the 565K estimate. Continuing claims fell to 6.13MM, but remain extraordinarily high for a “recovery”. This news should give investors pause about the pace of any upturn in the economy. Without a swift rebound in jobs it is unlikely that the recovery will be above trend.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.