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THOUGHT’S ON FRIDAY’S DATA

Nothing mind blowing to report this morning.  In fact, more of the same – weak consumers, signs of deflation and “better than expected” earnings.  Consumer sentiment came in essentially flat this morning at 65.7.   This was a slight drop from the last reading, but nothing significant.

The more important news this morning is the personal income and outlays.  Personal incomes were flat for the month and fell 2.4% year over year.  Consumer spending was up 0.2% for the month and 1.1% year over year.  It’s nice to see that people are making less and spending more.  All joking aside, the boost in spending was due almost entirely to cash for clunkers which we all know is about the most fiscally irresponsible program this government has ever put together. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, this program has the potential to be highly destructive.  Taking out a loan from China to finance a program that encourages consumers to take out a loan to purchase a depreciating asset they likely don’t need….The effect on retail sales should be large, but the government just wants to see the near-term boost in GDP.

The market is rising on good earnings news, however (at least it was when I started writing).  Intel raised their guidance, Dell posted horrible (though “better than expected”) numbers and Tiffany’s and J. Crew both posted terrible, but “better than expected” quarters.  The analysts are still playing catch-up here and that alone is enough to give the market a reason to jump.

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