Chris Thornberg nailed the housing bust and has a very similar outlook to myself. He believes a housing bottom could come this summer, but more likely later in the year. More alarming, he believes prices will remain depressed for years. I should note of course that I do not see housing bottoming in the coming year (although I did call for this mid-year “false dawn”), but rather bumping lower and lower at a reduced rate until we see a full mean reversion. Another 20%+ price decline is in the cards before 2013 in my opinion.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
Given that that’s a 15 month supply of condo inventory and (taking into account shadow inventory) a 20 month supply in houses, I can’t see nominal prices bottoming until late 2010 or early 2011.
Unless Obama adopted some extreme tactics, like giving foreigners citizenship if they buy a house as a residence, and demolishing a large amount of houses, and giving grants to US military vets, coast guard vets, and peace corp vets covering 20% of purchase price for a house.
How the hell can anyone be talking about a bottom this summer? Prices fell almost 19% year over year last month. We would have to see the most insane v-shaped spike in prices in order for that to happen. Unfortunately, the housing market doesn’t turn on a dime like other markets do….
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