Interesting stuff here from Econbrowser and Professor James Hamilton on a new indicator created by Goldman’s Jan Hatzius and several others. The indicator is deteriorating substantially in recent months and could be pointing to further economic weakness. This indicator appears to have a fairly good track record in leading past downturns:
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.