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The Ultimate Macro Bull vs Bear Debate

I liked this post last week from Robert Seawright about our potential economic future.  It makes for a very interesting macro bull vs bear debate.

On the one side, you have Robert Gordon of Northwestern University who says that growth is dead, innovation can’t sustain its recent rapid pace and we’re due for a massive trend reversal here in the coming years.

“The US economy has been expanding wildly for two centuries. Are we witnessing the end of growth? Economist Robert Gordon lays out 4 reasons US growth may be slowing, detailing factors like epidemic debt and growing inequality, which could move the US into a period of stasis we can’t innovate our way out of.”

On the bull side, you have Erik Brynjolfsson of MIT who says Gordon is wrong and that our best years are likely ahead of us.

“As machines take on more jobs, many find themselves out of work or with raises indefinitely postponed. Is this the end of growth? No, says Erik Brynjolfsson — it’s simply the growing pains of a radically reorganized economy. A riveting case for why big innovations are ahead of us … if we think of computers as our teammates.”

As a long-term optimist, you can probably guess who I agree with, but who cares about my opinion.  What do you think and why?

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