Ezra Klein has an interesting thought piece in the Washington Post on the “recovery presidency”. He’s referring to the belief that the next President is likely to inherit much better economic times. Those following my work over the years know that I largely agree with this notion that the balance sheet recession will end in the 2013-2014 range (see here) and that the economy is likely to muddle through though slowly improve until then (as the negative effects of the BSR wear off). Klein says this next Presidential win will likely result in the confirmation of broad political beliefs based on the results of the last few years:
“You can see how this will work. If Romney wins the presidency and the economy begins to rebound, Republicans will argue, and America’s experience will seem to show, that they were right all along: The stimulus was useless and the regulatory uncertainty the Obama administration created with its health-care plan and its talk of cap-and-trade and all the rest kept businesses from investing. Of course, if Obama keeps the office, that argument will be largely discredited, and he’ll be able to make the case that he and his party steered the country through incredible choppy waters despite relentless obstructionism from the Republicans — oh, and in 2014, he’ll also give 32 million Americans health-care insurance, just another little side project he got done while saving the economy.”
Sounds about right to me. So flip a coin and let’s see who’s going to be seen as the next genius economic President.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.