It’s been 5 long years since the Lehman crisis. And we’ve probably all gotten stuff wrong since the crisis. I know I wasn’t bearish enough in 2008 and I wasn’t bullish enough in 2009. And then I got wrapped up in the whole MMT thing for 18 months before realizing that maybe I didn’t fit into an economic “school of thought”. It’s been a heck of a learning experience as we rode into the abyss and back out. I think those of us who have gone through the crisis period with an open mind and flexible thought process have found these 5 years to be among the most educational and informative years of our lives. I know I certainly have.
But there are some people who appear to have learned almost nothing. Some people have held onto their ideology or biases throughout the entirety of the crisis. Their stories have evolved slightly and some of them have even moved the goal posts, but the same basic argument has remained intact for years. I’d argue that the pundits and politicians who have had the last 5 years “the most wrong” were those who believed in the fear trade (see here).
But what do you think? Who has had it the most wrong over the last 5 years? I posed this question on Twitter yesterday and the answers were wide ranging from Allan Meltzer to Peter Schiff to Niall Ferguson to a whole host of others. What’s your vote? Who has had it the most wrong? And yes, if you want to vote me for adhering to a “new paradigm” and then creating Monetary Realism then it’s well deserved….
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.