Pretty much in-line with the standard view on Wall Street these days – buys stocks, sell bonds, buy commodities, etc. (via JPM):
Our Japan growth forecast is raised, but the UK is cut. Our global growth forecast for 2011 is unchanged at 3.5%.
- Asset allocation
Our top performers for 2011 should be equities and high-yield. But do include commodities on tight supplies and their good diversification value against certain inflation and political risks.
- Fixed Income
We go short duration in Treasuries, with yields near the bottom of their recent range.
Rising geopolitical and inflation risks favours an OW in Commodity sectors and an UW in EM equities.
Overweight high quality CMBS as property prices recover and vacancy rates decline
Be long EUR/USD, and short GBP versus EUR, SEK and CAD.
OPEC likely to increase production gradually from here, but we still expect Brent to break well over $100 this year.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.