David Rosenberg is calling himself Goldberg this morning as he continues to state the case for gold. He thinks the yellow metal is in a secular bull market, but could be highly susceptible to a near-term pull-back. Like our recent report from Casey Research, Rosenberg believes China could be a major source of the fuel for higher gold prices:
Gold just capped off its best month in a year — up 14% in November and 34% so far in 2009. Not even the S&P 500 can compete with that. Helping drive the latest gains was the news out of the China Gold Association that the country’s gold demand is on pace this year to exceed 450 metric tonnes, a 14% increase over the 395.6 tonnes in 2008. (In contrast to India, jewelry sales are up double-digits in China so far this year.) By way of comparison, China, which recently surpassed South Africa as the world’s largest producer, is on its way to 310 tons of newly mined output this year, or more than 30% below its level of demand.
It’s not just the middle-class in China that is starting to buy gold, but the central bank, which has very deep pockets, is going to do likewise. We just came across a Bloomberg News article quoting an official from the state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (Ji Xiaonan, the Chief) as saying “we recommend China increase its gold reserves to 6,000 metric tons within three-to-five years and possibly to 10,000 tons in eight to 10 years.” China’s reserves, after a 76% buildup since 2003, currently stand at 1,054 tons, so we are talking here about the prospect of some pretty heaving buying in coming years.
If China were to lift their gold reserves to 5,000 tonnes, which is equivalent to about two years of global production, that shift in demand would boost the gold price by $800/oz to around $2,000 ($1,978) based on our models. If China moves towards 10,000 tonnes, well, that would end up taking the gold price to $2,623/ounce if our calculations are in the ball-park.
Make no mistake, we are gold bulls. Central banks have deep pockets and production of gold is stagnant so the demand-supply backdrop for bullion is bullish. At the same time, we have to pay respect for market positioning over the near-term. The market for precious metals is overextended right now after the parabolic move of the past two months. The net speculative long position has swelled to a record 273,552 contracts (100 ounces each) on the COMEX. Open interest has never been higher, at 693,661 contracts. So this is one crowded trade — as is the short-trade on the USD against all the major currencies, especially the commodity-based units.
So, we could get a meaningful gold correction at any time, and we are talking about a correction in what is still a secular bull market — the 200-day moving average is $970/oz, which means we could get as much as a 20% pullback and no fundamental trendline would be violated. We remain long-term gold bulls, and our commentary remains fundamentally bullish, but anything that could spark a countertrend rally in the U.S. dollar, which is our principal near-term concern, would put gold at a much better price point for investors than the peak we are at today.
Source: Gluskin Sheff
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.