Recent economic data in the housing market has a lot of people calling a bottom in the housing market. Many industry insiders have even expressed optimism with regards to a potential housing bottom. One of those insiders is Bob Toll, CEO of Toll Brothers, who has repeatedly said in the last two months that he is seeing positive signs of a bottom in many markets. Of course, those familiar with Toll know that his comments were positive throughout the drop in TOL stock (as he unloaded shares). As usual, his actions speak louder than words:
I’ve said in the past that you need to be wary of insider selling. It’s not always a great indicator because insiders sell for various reasons. Robert and Bruce Toll, however, have had remarkable timing with their sales. They sold hundreds of millions in TOL stock at the very peak of the housing market and have subsequently sold more shares at almost every short-term stock market peak. It’s not an infallible indicator, but as the old saying goes – it might be smart to “do as they do, not as they say”….
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
Wow! That chart is something. These guys have a penchant for sniffing the market turns and sell before a big drop. If their past record is any indication, the DOW should be on its way down any day now.
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