David Rosenberg rains on the bull parade and explains why the employment report was more bearish than the market response:
But there were many other parts of the nonfarm report that left much to be desired. Here’s an unlucky seven examples of softness beneath the surface:
1. Aggregate hours worked were flat.
2. All the employment gains were part-time — full-time employment, as per the Household Survey, plunged 254,000.
3. Those working part-time for “economic reasons” surged 331,000 — the biggest increase in six months.
4. While private payrolls were better than expected, 10,000 of that +67,000 tally reflected returning construction workers who had been on strike.
5. Manufacturing employment was down 27,000 and total goods producing jobs were flat — hardly signs of a robust economic backdrop.
6. The diffusion index for private payrolls actually fell to 53.0 from 56.7 in July — a seven-month low. It was 68.0 at the April high, which is consistent with an economy slowing down to stall-speed.
7. The labour market gap widened with the all-inclusive U6 unemployment rate rising to a four-month high of 16.7% from 16.5% in July. This is why the odds are stacked against a sustained acceleration in wages.
Source: Gluskin Sheff
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.