The fact that no one else is. The VIX is fast approaching levels that are consistent with very high complacency. I know, stocks don’t go down, the economic recovery is here, it’s a “win win” market, etc. But the VIX sinking below 17 is a sign that investors are increasingly confident removing hedges and leaving their portfolios exposed to greater risk. Many of of the most brutal sell-offs in recent years were accompanied by the exact same environments – government had intervened to save the economy, all was well in the world, and on and on. The market has a way of fooling the majority of investors the majority of the time. Right now looks like a good time to be hedged – not necessarily because you’re bearish, but because it’s the contrarian play….
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.