In this version of super bull versus super bear we highlight polar opposites. Our super bull is Thomas Lee, Chief Equity Strategist at JP Morgan who says the market is going to rally over 12% in December. Our super bear is Peter Tchir, founder of TF Market Advisors, who says the Euro crisis will keep a lid on the market.
Tchir’s perspective is interesting as he was a former CDS trader at UBS and ran the high yield bond department at Banker’s Trust. Tchir is approaching the environment almost entirely from a credit perspective so his insights are especially pertinent. He says the current environment in Europe is highly alarming. On a scale from 1-10 (1 being good and 10 being bad) he rates the Euro crisis as a 9 or 10. He’s not buying the idea that Europe’s problems are close to being resolved.
Thomas Lee, on the other hand, is incredibly bullish. He says the equity market is going to rally almost 13% by year-end because the macro conditions are overshadowing what is actually a very good underlying story. Lee says things are so bad right now that they’re likely to get better. He also cites the continuing strong corporate earnings environment. Who is right? You decide….
Source: Bloomberg TV
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.