Fairly positive data out this morning with the exception of consumer confidence. On the retail front we saw gains in the ICSC retail sales report. ICSC is reporting a 0.1% weekly gain and a 0.9% year over year gain. The Redbook data continues to come in negative at -2.2%. It’s difficult to place too much emphasis on the this data as the small gains likely mean the consumer is doing little to nothing when compared to last year.
On the housing front, the Case/Shiller index posted its third monthly gain. Home prices were up 1.7% monthly and down 12.8% year over year. This is rear view mirror data and insignificant now that we are beginning to see weakness in home sales. The more important home price data will come in the latter portion of the year.
Consumer confidence came in well below forecasts. Analysts were looking for another sharp increase to 57, but the data disappointed at 53.1. The market lost a bit of ground on the news, but appears to be stabilizing around the flatline – not a bad sign for the bulls considering yesterday’s no news rally.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.