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Some Thoughts on the Job’s Report

Lots of other people gave offered up their opinions and analysis on this morning’s job’s report so I’ll just provide a summary perspective:

  • The December reported job gains of 74K was well below expectations of 200K.
  • November was revised up substantially from 203K to 241K.
  • Private payrolls came in at 87K vs expectations of 189K.
  • Average hourly earnings were lower than expected at 0.1%.
  • The unemployment rate came in at 6.7%, which is fairly misleading considering the changes in the participation rate.
  • Weather is being cited as a major contributing factor to the negative report.

Major conclusions:

  • There is still no sign of wage inflation in this data therefore we should not be worried about inflation in the near-term.
  • The economy remains weaker than many expect. ¬†Muddle through is still very much on the table in my opinion and the consensus could be overly optimistic about the macro picture heading into 2014.
  • The Fed is unlikely to aggressively taper this year. ¬†Easy money is here to stay.



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