“Data over the past month have led to relatively little change in our forecast. We think that gross domestic product expanded at about a 3.2% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2011, partly reflecting transitory factors such as a buildup of manufacturing inventories. We expect GDP growth to moderate in the first half of 2012, averaging only about an annualized 2.1%. The recovery should gradually pick up steam over 2012 and into 2013. This pace of growth is likely to be too slow to bring the unemployment rate down much. We expect that unemployment will fall only slightly below 8.5% by the end of this year and to only a bit less than 8% by the end of 2013.”
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.