Jeff Saut’s weekly note at Raymond James was decidedly more cautious:
“That said, today is session 21 in the buying stampede, and we have learned the hard way not to press our long trading positions this late in the typical 17 – 25 session skein. Sure, it’s possible this could be one of the few 25 – 30 session affairs, but it is rare to see any “buying stampede” extend for more than 30 sessions. Moreover, our phones are currently ringing off the hook with wrong-way willies who were afraid to “buy ‘em” four weeks ago and are now clamoring for buy ideas; and that, ladies and gentlemen, is an inferential message not to be taken lightly.”
“If I could script the action from here, it would call for a “trading high” this week followed by a pullback, which holds above last Monday’s (3-30-09) intraday low of 779.81 (basis the SPX), and then a re-rally. In that re-rally, if the SPX fails to trade to higher highs, it would be a large red warning flag.”
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.