Jeff Saut of Raymond James is sticking to his bullish near-term outlook. He says none of the characteristics of a major market top are in place and that much of the bearishness of the last few weeks is overdone:
“Edgar Winter was right, “The mountain is high, the valley is low; and you’re confused on which way to go.” As for leading you into the Promised Land, I think that was done in March 2009 (I was very bullish); this year, however, my mantra has been, “the trick in 2010 is going to be keeping the profits accrued from the March 2009 lows.” I think the two new platforms from AMS have a good chance of accomplishing that, as well as potentially leading you into the Promised Land over the next few years. Last week, however, investors gave up on stocks, worried that Wednesday’s 90% Downside Day marked the end of the summer rally, punctuated by fears that another big decline was in the offing as we enter the dreaded months of September/October. While statistically those months tend to be the worst of the year, that wasn’t the way it played last year; and, I doubt that is the way it plays this year. While the equity markets may pull back, NONE of the characteristics that mark a major “top” are currently in place, including the one all of you folks “pinged” me about late last week; namely, the prematurely called “Hindenburg Omen.” The reporter that released that salacious indicator was clearly a headline seeker since not all of the metrics ascribed to said indicator have yet to be in place.”
Source: Raymond James
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.