Not everyone is a bull…In his latest weekly missive Jeff Saut of Raymond James says the good news is all priced int:
“The call for this week: Study the chart from the good folks at Zero Hedge. There is a remarkable similarity to the divergence that took place between stock prices and U.S. Economic Data Trends in April 2011 right before the SPX shed 8%. Take that in concert with what happened to interest rates last week, a dearth of internal energy for the equity markets, a S&P 500 that is 2 standard deviations above its 50-day moving average, rumors Operation Twist is over, Chinese consternations, regulators gone wild, rising gasoline prices, massive corporate insider selling, and my sense that in the short run all of the good news is on the table, and it appears as if the easy money has been made. That said, I still would not get too bearish because I do expect stocks to be higher by year end. Moreover, last Tuesday’s upside breakout turned out to be the first 90% Upside Day of this year meaning that 90% of total volume traded came in on the upside as did 90% of total points traded. To negate that action would require a sell-off on heavy volume that results in a closing price below the previous rally’s closing high of 1374.09 on the SPX. Still, the stock market may have enough “forereach” (a term for you nautical types) to tag 1420, but in my opinion the game’s not worth the candle.”
Read the full letter here.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.